Polymarket
Prediction market data — categories, update frequency, and how markets are displayed.
On this page (5)
Polymarket is the largest on-chain prediction market platform. Worldview integrates Polymarket data to display real-time market-implied probabilities for economic, political, and financial events.
What prediction markets show
Each Polymarket market is a binary outcome question. Traders buy YES or NO shares, and the market price converges to the probability (0–100%) the crowd assigns to the outcome.
Example markets relevant to finance:
- "Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?" — YES: 62%
- "Will US CPI exceed 3.5% in Q2 2026?" — YES: 38%
- "Will BTC reach $120K by end of 2026?" — YES: 55%
Market pricing vs. probability
Polymarket prices are expressed as cents per contract (0–100). A YES price of 62 cents means the market assigns a 62% probability to the event occurring. This is a market-implied probability, not an expert forecast.
Categories
Worldview organizes Polymarket events into categories:
| Category | Examples |
|---|---|
| Economics | Fed rate decisions, CPI prints, GDP beats/misses |
| Politics | Election outcomes, policy decisions, geopolitical events |
| Crypto | BTC/ETH price targets, protocol upgrades |
| Equities | Stock price targets, index levels |
| Sports | (filtered out by default in the finance context) |
Use the category dropdown on the dashboard Prediction Markets widget or the full prediction markets page to filter by category.
Data freshness
Worldview polls the Polymarket API every 5 minutes. The dashboard widget shows:
- Current YES probability (%)
- 24-hour volume (USD)
- 24-hour probability change (direction and magnitude)
- Resolution date (when the market closes)
Resolved markets
After a market resolves (YES or NO), it stays in the Worldview database with its resolution outcome. This historical data is used to track prediction market accuracy over time — a useful calibration signal when evaluating current open markets.
Prediction markets page
Navigate to /prediction-markets from the left rail or via G then M to see the full prediction markets browser with:
- All active markets
- Filters by category, volume, and resolution date
- Sorting by probability, volume, or recent change
- Market detail page with probability history chart
Was this page helpful?